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Shukura vs Torpedo Kutaisi — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Shukura
Shukura
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Kutaisi
Torpedo Kutaisi
9/23/2023Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 26Stadioni Davit Abashidze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Shukura25%
×Draw24%
Torpedo Kutaisi51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shukura
1.13
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.71

Torpedo Kutaisi creates 51% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 129 away

creates per match

Shukura
0.95
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.26

allows per match

Shukura
2.16
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.30

finishing

Shukura+0.00on par
Torpedo Kutaisi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shukura ↓

Torpedo Kutaisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shukura or draw
49%
Shukura or Torpedo Kutaisi
76%
Draw or Torpedo Kutaisi
75%

Winning margin

Shukura wins by 2+
10%
Torpedo Kutaisi wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Shukura 1+ goals
68%
Shukura 2+ goals
31%
Shukura 3+ goals
11%
Torpedo Kutaisi 1+ goals
82%
Torpedo Kutaisi 2+ goals
51%
Torpedo Kutaisi 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Shukura (draw refunded)
33%
Torpedo Kutaisi (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shukura at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.16 · 38 matches

Torpedo Kutaisi away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shukura attack 0.95 + Torpedo Kutaisi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Torpedo Kutaisi attack 1.26 + Shukura defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Shukura scores more
25%
level
24%
Torpedo Kutaisi scores more
51%

Torpedo Kutaisi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Torpedo Kutaisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Shukura 0–0 Torpedo Kutaisi

Shukura and Torpedo Kutaisi drew 0-0 in Erovnuli Liga on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadioni Davit Abashidze in Zestaponi.