Torpedo Kutaisi 0–1 Rustavi: Result & Stats

Torpedo Kutaisi

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rustavi

L. Silagadze 61'

8/11/2019

Erovnuli Liga · Round 23Stadioni 26 Maisi (Tskaltubo (Tskhaltubo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Torpedo Kutaisi48%

×Draw25%

Rustavi27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo KutaisiExpected goals in this matchRustavi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.10

Torpedo Kutaisi

1.56

Rustavi

1.10

Torpedo Kutaisi creates 42% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 29 away

1.58

creates per match

1.03

1.17

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Torpedo Kutaisi

1.58

Rustavi

1.03

allows per match

Torpedo Kutaisi

1.17

Rustavi

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Kutaisi+0.00on par

Rustavi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Kutaisi ↓

Rustavi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Torpedo Kutaisi or draw

73%

Torpedo Kutaisi or Rustavi

75%

Draw or Rustavi

52%

Winning margin

Torpedo Kutaisi wins by 2+

25%

Rustavi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Torpedo Kutaisi 1+ goals

79%

Torpedo Kutaisi 2+ goals

46%

Torpedo Kutaisi 3+ goals

21%

Rustavi 1+ goals

67%

Rustavi 2+ goals

30%

Rustavi 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Kutaisi (draw refunded)

64%

Rustavi (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Kutaisi at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

Rustavi away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.55 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Kutaisi attack 1.58 + Rustavi defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rustavi attack 1.03 + Torpedo Kutaisi defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Torpedo Kutaisi scores more

48%

level

25%

Rustavi scores more

27%

Torpedo Kutaisi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Torpedo Kutaisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

D. Ionanidze← Z. Tsitskishvili

46'

T. Tsetskhladze← T. Nadaraia

61'

L. Silagadze

65'

G. Kiknadze← T. Mosiashvili

70'

N. Dzalamidze← D. Sitchinava

80'

G. Tevzadze← B. Kavtaradze

87'

L. Lezhava← L. Imnadze

Torpedo

Rustavi

25

33

3

5

2

6

10

▼

Sitchinav

15

Kochladze

7

⚽

Silagadze

9

▼

Kavtaradz

19

▼

39

5

2

14

▼

33

4

3

22

8

7

▼

Mosiashvi

19

▼

Tsitskish

Manager: K. Chkhetiani

31'▲D. Ionanidze←▼Z. Tsitskishvili

46'▲T. Tsetskhladze←▼T. Nadaraia

65'▲G. Kiknadze←▼T. Mosiashvili

Torpedo Kutaisi substitutes

11Ionanidze6Tsetskhladze30Kiknadze12Machaidze13Koberidze15Gadrani25Shovnadze

Manager: V. Kilasonia

70'▲N. Dzalamidze←▼D. Sitchinava

80'▲G. Tevzadze←▼B. Kavtaradze

87'▲L. Lezhava←▼L. Imnadze

Rustavi substitutes

11Dzalamidze16Tevzadze23Lezhava12Kulua27Salukvadze18Souza