Rustavi 2–0 Torpedo Kutaisi: Result & Stats

Rustavi

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Torpedo Kutaisi

G. Latsabidze 83'

B. Kavtaradze 3' (pen)

10/27/2019

Erovnuli Liga · Round 32Teknikuri Tsentri (Rustavi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Rustavi38%

×Draw27%

Torpedo Kutaisi35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RustaviExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Kutaisi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.21

Rustavi

1.26

Torpedo Kutaisi

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 129 away

1.22

creates per match

1.26

1.15

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Rustavi

1.22

Torpedo Kutaisi

1.26

allows per match

Rustavi

1.15

Torpedo Kutaisi

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rustavi+0.00on par

Torpedo Kutaisi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rustavi ↓

Torpedo Kutaisi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Rustavi or draw

65%

Rustavi or Torpedo Kutaisi

73%

Draw or Torpedo Kutaisi

62%

Winning margin

Rustavi wins by 2+

16%

Torpedo Kutaisi wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rustavi 1+ goals

72%

Rustavi 2+ goals

36%

Rustavi 3+ goals

13%

Torpedo Kutaisi 1+ goals

70%

Torpedo Kutaisi 2+ goals

34%

Torpedo Kutaisi 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rustavi (draw refunded)

52%

Torpedo Kutaisi (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rustavi at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

Torpedo Kutaisi away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rustavi attack 1.22 + Torpedo Kutaisi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.26

Torpedo Kutaisi attack 1.26 + Rustavi defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rustavi scores more

38%

level

27%

Torpedo Kutaisi scores more

35%

Rustavi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rustavi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

R. Chukvura

3'

B. KavtaradzePenalty

33'

G. Bugulov← L. Kochladze

37'

D. Sitchinava← N. Dzalamidze

39'

G. Dolidze← T. Tsetskhladze

42'

56'

56'

57'

61'

G. Kiknadze← T. Grigalashvili

73'

D. Ionanidze← U. Chukwurah

79'

G. Machaidze

80'

L. Lezhava← B. Kavtaradze

83'

G. Latsabidze

90'

A. Gujabidze

Rustavi

Torpedo

25

Shovnadze

5

Khurtsila

2

Tabatadze

31

▼

Grigalash

12

Machaidze

14

Nadaraia

33

▼

Chukwurah

6

▼

4

7

9

25

3

⚽

Latsabidz

5

Nozadze

2

Kapanadze

11

▼

Dzalamidz

6

Vasadze

15

▼

Kochladze

8

Gujabidze

14

Kiteishvi

9

⚽

▼

Kavtaradz

19

Imnadze

Manager: V. Kilasonia

33'▲G. Bugulov←▼L. Kochladze

37'▲D. Sitchinava←▼N. Dzalamidze

80'▲L. Lezhava←▼B. Kavtaradze

Rustavi substitutes

33Bugulov10Sitchinava23Lezhava12Kulua18Souza24Bayramov27Salukvadze

Manager: K. Chkhetiani

39'▲G. Dolidze←▼T. Tsetskhladze

61'▲G. Kiknadze←▼T. Grigalashvili

73'▲D. Ionanidze←▼U. Chukwurah

Torpedo Kutaisi substitutes

22Dolidze30Kiknadze11Ionanidze3Nebieridze18Abuladze29Asatiani35Koridze