Torpedo Kutaisi 5–3 Chikhura Sachkhere

Torpedo Kutaisi

FT

5 – 3

HT: 4 – 1

Chikhura Sachkhere

6/15/2019

Erovnuli Liga · Round 18Stadioni 26 Maisi (Tskaltubo (Tskhaltubo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Torpedo Kutaisi50%

×Draw25%

Chikhura Sachkhere25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo KutaisiExpected goals in this matchChikhura Sachkhere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.05

Torpedo Kutaisi

1.58

Chikhura Sachkhere

1.05

Torpedo Kutaisi creates 50% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 28 away

1.58

creates per match

0.93

1.17

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Torpedo Kutaisi

1.58

Chikhura Sachkhere

0.93

allows per match

Torpedo Kutaisi

1.17

Chikhura Sachkhere

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Kutaisi+0.00on par

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Kutaisi ↓

Chikhura Sachkhere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Torpedo Kutaisi or draw

75%

Torpedo Kutaisi or Chikhura Sachkhere

75%

Draw or Chikhura Sachkhere

50%

Winning margin

Torpedo Kutaisi wins by 2+

26%

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Torpedo Kutaisi 1+ goals

79%

Torpedo Kutaisi 2+ goals

47%

Torpedo Kutaisi 3+ goals

21%

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals

65%

Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals

28%

Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Kutaisi (draw refunded)

66%

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Kutaisi at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

Chikhura Sachkhere away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Kutaisi attack 1.58 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.93 + Torpedo Kutaisi defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Torpedo Kutaisi scores more

50%

level

25%

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more

25%

Torpedo Kutaisi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Torpedo Kutaisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff