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Chikhura Sachkhere vs Torpedo Kutaisi — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Torpedo Kutaisi
Torpedo Kutaisi
10/4/2020Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 6Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Chikhura Sachkhere36%
×Draw26%
Torpedo Kutaisi38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.36
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 128 away

creates per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.43
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.25

allows per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.54
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.30

finishing

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par
Torpedo Kutaisi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chikhura Sachkhere ↓

Torpedo Kutaisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chikhura Sachkhere or draw
62%
Chikhura Sachkhere or Torpedo Kutaisi
74%
Draw or Torpedo Kutaisi
64%

Winning margin

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
16%
Torpedo Kutaisi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
74%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
39%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
16%
Torpedo Kutaisi 1+ goals
75%
Torpedo Kutaisi 2+ goals
41%
Torpedo Kutaisi 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
49%
Torpedo Kutaisi (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chikhura Sachkhere at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

Torpedo Kutaisi away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.30 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 1.43 + Torpedo Kutaisi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Torpedo Kutaisi attack 1.25 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
36%
level
26%
Torpedo Kutaisi scores more
38%

Torpedo Kutaisi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Torpedo Kutaisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chikhura Sachkhere vs Torpedo Kutaisi

Chikhura Sachkhere and Torpedo Kutaisi drew 2-2 in Erovnuli Liga on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni in Tbilisi.