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Torpedo BelAZ II vs Ostrovets FC — 1. Division 2018

Torpedo BelAZ II
Torpedo BelAZ II
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Ostrovets FC
Ostrovets FC
10/19/20241. Division1. Division · Round 29Stadyen Tarpeda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torpedo BelAZ II24%
×Draw21%
Ostrovets FC55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo BelAZ II
1.33
Ostrovets FC
2.12

Ostrovets FC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

creates per match

Torpedo BelAZ II
1.06
Ostrovets FC
1.58

allows per match

Torpedo BelAZ II
2.65
Ostrovets FC
1.59

finishing

Torpedo BelAZ II+0.00on par
Ostrovets FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo BelAZ II ↓

Ostrovets FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Torpedo BelAZ II or draw
45%
Torpedo BelAZ II or Ostrovets FC
79%
Draw or Ostrovets FC
76%

Winning margin

Torpedo BelAZ II wins by 2+
10%
Ostrovets FC wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Torpedo BelAZ II 1+ goals
74%
Torpedo BelAZ II 2+ goals
38%
Torpedo BelAZ II 3+ goals
15%
Ostrovets FC 1+ goals
88%
Ostrovets FC 2+ goals
62%
Ostrovets FC 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Torpedo BelAZ II (draw refunded)
30%
Ostrovets FC (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo BelAZ II at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Ostrovets FC away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.59 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo BelAZ II attack 1.06 + Ostrovets FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Ostrovets FC attack 1.58 + Torpedo BelAZ II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Torpedo BelAZ II scores more
24%
level
21%
Ostrovets FC scores more
55%

Ostrovets FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ostrovets FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Torpedo BelAZ II 2–4 Ostrovets FC

Ostrovets FC beat Torpedo BelAZ II 4-2 in 1. Division on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Tarpeda in Zhodino.