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Ostrovets FC vs Torpedo BelAZ II — 1. Division 2018

Ostrovets FC
Ostrovets FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Torpedo BelAZ II
Torpedo BelAZ II
6/22/20241. Division1. Division · Round 12Stadyen ASK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ostrovets FC56%
×Draw21%
Torpedo BelAZ II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostrovets FC
2.10
Torpedo BelAZ II
1.27

Ostrovets FC creates 65% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ostrovets FC
1.50
Torpedo BelAZ II
0.94

allows per match

Ostrovets FC
1.60
Torpedo BelAZ II
2.71

finishing

Ostrovets FC+0.00on par
Torpedo BelAZ II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrovets FC ↓

Torpedo BelAZ II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Ostrovets FC or draw
77%
Ostrovets FC or Torpedo BelAZ II
79%
Draw or Torpedo BelAZ II
44%

Winning margin

Ostrovets FC wins by 2+
34%
Torpedo BelAZ II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ostrovets FC 1+ goals
88%
Ostrovets FC 2+ goals
62%
Ostrovets FC 3+ goals
35%
Torpedo BelAZ II 1+ goals
72%
Torpedo BelAZ II 2+ goals
36%
Torpedo BelAZ II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ostrovets FC (draw refunded)
71%
Torpedo BelAZ II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrovets FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

Torpedo BelAZ II away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrovets FC attack 1.50 + Torpedo BelAZ II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.10

Torpedo BelAZ II attack 0.94 + Ostrovets FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ostrovets FC scores more
56%
level
21%
Torpedo BelAZ II scores more
23%

Ostrovets FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ostrovets FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Ostrovets FC 3–0 Torpedo BelAZ II

Ostrovets FC beat Torpedo BelAZ II 3-0 in 1. Division on June 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen ASK in Astravets.