Torpedo BelAZ II 1–3 Lokomotiv Gomel

Torpedo BelAZ II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Lokomotiv Gomel

7/19/2024

1. Division · Round 15Stadyen Tarpeda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torpedo BelAZ II22%

×Draw21%

Lokomotiv Gomel57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo BelAZ IIExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Gomel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

2.02

Torpedo BelAZ II

1.18

Lokomotiv Gomel

2.02

Lokomotiv Gomel creates 71% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 121 away

1.06

creates per match

1.40

2.65

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Torpedo BelAZ II

1.06

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.40

allows per match

Torpedo BelAZ II

2.65

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo BelAZ II+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Gomel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo BelAZ II ↓

Lokomotiv Gomel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Torpedo BelAZ II or draw

43%

Torpedo BelAZ II or Lokomotiv Gomel

79%

Draw or Lokomotiv Gomel

78%

Winning margin

Torpedo BelAZ II wins by 2+

9%

Lokomotiv Gomel wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Torpedo BelAZ II 1+ goals

69%

Torpedo BelAZ II 2+ goals

33%

Torpedo BelAZ II 3+ goals

12%

Lokomotiv Gomel 1+ goals

87%

Lokomotiv Gomel 2+ goals

60%

Lokomotiv Gomel 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Torpedo BelAZ II (draw refunded)

28%

Lokomotiv Gomel (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo BelAZ II at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Lokomotiv Gomel away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.29 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo BelAZ II attack 1.06 + Lokomotiv Gomel defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Lokomotiv Gomel attack 1.40 + Torpedo BelAZ II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Torpedo BelAZ II scores more

22%

level

21%

Lokomotiv Gomel scores more

57%

Lokomotiv Gomel at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lokomotiv Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff