Lokomotiv Gomel 5–2 Torpedo BelAZ II

Lokomotiv Gomel

FT

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Torpedo BelAZ II

11/9/2024

1. Division · Round 32Stadyen Lakamatyu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lokomotiv Gomel67%

×Draw18%

Torpedo BelAZ II15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv GomelExpected goals in this matchTorpedo BelAZ II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.00

Lokomotiv Gomel

2.35

Torpedo BelAZ II

1.00

Lokomotiv Gomel creates 135% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 17 away

2.00

creates per match

0.94

1.07

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Lokomotiv Gomel

2.00

Torpedo BelAZ II

0.94

allows per match

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.07

Torpedo BelAZ II

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Gomel+0.00on par

Torpedo BelAZ II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Gomel ↓

Torpedo BelAZ II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Gomel or draw

85%

Lokomotiv Gomel or Torpedo BelAZ II

82%

Draw or Torpedo BelAZ II

33%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Gomel wins by 2+

44%

Torpedo BelAZ II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Gomel 1+ goals

90%

Lokomotiv Gomel 2+ goals

68%

Lokomotiv Gomel 3+ goals

41%

Torpedo BelAZ II 1+ goals

63%

Torpedo BelAZ II 2+ goals

26%

Torpedo BelAZ II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Gomel (draw refunded)

82%

Torpedo BelAZ II (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Gomel at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.07 · 120 matches

Torpedo BelAZ II away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Gomel attack 2.00 + Torpedo BelAZ II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.35

Torpedo BelAZ II attack 0.94 + Lokomotiv Gomel defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Lokomotiv Gomel scores more

67%

level

18%

Torpedo BelAZ II scores more

15%

Lokomotiv Gomel at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Lokomotiv Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff