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Torpedo BelAZ II vs FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk — 1. Division 2018

Torpedo BelAZ II
Torpedo BelAZ II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
9/25/20241. Division1. Division · Round 23Stadyen Tarpeda Iskusstvennoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torpedo BelAZ II18%
×Draw20%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo BelAZ II
1.09
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
2.22

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk creates 104% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 38 away

creates per match

Torpedo BelAZ II
1.06
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.79

allows per match

Torpedo BelAZ II
2.65
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.13

finishing

Torpedo BelAZ II+0.00on par
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo BelAZ II ↓

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Torpedo BelAZ II or draw
37%
Torpedo BelAZ II or FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
80%
Draw or FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
82%

Winning margin

Torpedo BelAZ II wins by 2+
6%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Torpedo BelAZ II 1+ goals
66%
Torpedo BelAZ II 2+ goals
30%
Torpedo BelAZ II 3+ goals
10%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 1+ goals
89%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 2+ goals
65%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Torpedo BelAZ II (draw refunded)
22%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo BelAZ II at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo BelAZ II attack 1.06 + FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk attack 1.79 + Torpedo BelAZ II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Torpedo BelAZ II scores more
18%
level
20%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk scores more
63%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Torpedo BelAZ II 0–1 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk beat Torpedo BelAZ II 1-0 in 1. Division on September 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Tarpeda Iskusstvennoe pole in Zhodino.