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FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk vs Torpedo BelAZ II — 1. Division 2018

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo BelAZ II
Torpedo BelAZ II
5/10/20241. Division1. Division · Round 6Stadyen RTsOP-BGU

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk65%
×Draw19%
Torpedo BelAZ II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
2.31
Torpedo BelAZ II
1.08

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk creates 114% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 17 away

creates per match

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.92
Torpedo BelAZ II
0.94

allows per match

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.23
Torpedo BelAZ II
2.71

finishing

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk+0.00on par
Torpedo BelAZ II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk ↓

Torpedo BelAZ II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk or draw
83%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk or Torpedo BelAZ II
81%
Draw or Torpedo BelAZ II
35%

Winning margin

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk wins by 2+
42%
Torpedo BelAZ II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 1+ goals
90%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 2+ goals
67%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 3+ goals
40%
Torpedo BelAZ II 1+ goals
66%
Torpedo BelAZ II 2+ goals
29%
Torpedo BelAZ II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk (draw refunded)
80%
Torpedo BelAZ II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

Torpedo BelAZ II away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk attack 1.92 + Torpedo BelAZ II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.31

Torpedo BelAZ II attack 0.94 + FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk scores more
65%
level
19%
Torpedo BelAZ II scores more
17%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 0–2 Torpedo BelAZ II

Torpedo BelAZ II beat FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 2-0 in 1. Division on May 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen RTsOP-BGU in Minsk.