Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Torpedo BelAZ II vs Dinamo Minsk II — 1. Division 2018

Torpedo BelAZ II
Torpedo BelAZ II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Dinamo Minsk II
Dinamo Minsk II
11/17/20241. Division1. Division · Round 33Stadyen Tarpeda Iskusstvennoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torpedo BelAZ II22%
×Draw21%
Dinamo Minsk II57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo BelAZ II
1.18
Dinamo Minsk II
2.03

Dinamo Minsk II creates 72% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 41 away

creates per match

Torpedo BelAZ II
1.06
Dinamo Minsk II
1.41

allows per match

Torpedo BelAZ II
2.65
Dinamo Minsk II
1.29

finishing

Torpedo BelAZ II+0.00on par
Dinamo Minsk II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo BelAZ II ↓

Dinamo Minsk II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Torpedo BelAZ II or draw
43%
Torpedo BelAZ II or Dinamo Minsk II
79%
Draw or Dinamo Minsk II
78%

Winning margin

Torpedo BelAZ II wins by 2+
8%
Dinamo Minsk II wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Torpedo BelAZ II 1+ goals
69%
Torpedo BelAZ II 2+ goals
33%
Torpedo BelAZ II 3+ goals
12%
Dinamo Minsk II 1+ goals
87%
Dinamo Minsk II 2+ goals
60%
Dinamo Minsk II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Torpedo BelAZ II (draw refunded)
28%
Dinamo Minsk II (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo BelAZ II at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Dinamo Minsk II away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.29 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo BelAZ II attack 1.06 + Dinamo Minsk II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Dinamo Minsk II attack 1.41 + Torpedo BelAZ II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Torpedo BelAZ II scores more
22%
level
21%
Dinamo Minsk II scores more
57%

Dinamo Minsk II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo BelAZ II vs Dinamo Minsk II

Dinamo Minsk II beat Torpedo BelAZ II 2-0 in 1. Division on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Tarpeda Iskusstvennoe pole in Zhodino.