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Dinamo Minsk II vs Torpedo BelAZ II — 1. Division 2018

Dinamo Minsk II
Dinamo Minsk II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Torpedo BelAZ II
Torpedo BelAZ II
7/26/20241. Division1. Division · Round 16Stadyen Dynama-Juni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dinamo Minsk II61%
×Draw21%
Torpedo BelAZ II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Minsk II
2.08
Torpedo BelAZ II
1.03

Dinamo Minsk II creates 102% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 17 away

creates per match

Dinamo Minsk II
1.44
Torpedo BelAZ II
0.94

allows per match

Dinamo Minsk II
1.12
Torpedo BelAZ II
2.71

finishing

Dinamo Minsk II+0.00on par
Torpedo BelAZ II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Minsk II ↓

Torpedo BelAZ II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dinamo Minsk II or draw
82%
Dinamo Minsk II or Torpedo BelAZ II
79%
Draw or Torpedo BelAZ II
39%

Winning margin

Dinamo Minsk II wins by 2+
38%
Torpedo BelAZ II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dinamo Minsk II 1+ goals
87%
Dinamo Minsk II 2+ goals
61%
Dinamo Minsk II 3+ goals
34%
Torpedo BelAZ II 1+ goals
64%
Torpedo BelAZ II 2+ goals
28%
Torpedo BelAZ II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Minsk II (draw refunded)
77%
Torpedo BelAZ II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Minsk II at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

Torpedo BelAZ II away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Minsk II attack 1.44 + Torpedo BelAZ II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.08

Torpedo BelAZ II attack 0.94 + Dinamo Minsk II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dinamo Minsk II scores more
61%
level
21%
Torpedo BelAZ II scores more
18%

Dinamo Minsk II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Minsk II vs Torpedo BelAZ II

Dinamo Minsk II beat Torpedo BelAZ II 3-0 in 1. Division on July 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Dynama-Juni in Minsk.