FC Copenhagen 5–0 AC Horsens: Result & Stats

FC Copenhagen

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

AC Horsens

A. Pavlović 80'

F. Santander 69', 14'

A. Cornelius 38'

P. Ankersen 22'

3/5/2017

Superliga · Round 24Telia Parken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

FC Copenhagen61%

×Draw22%

AC Horsens18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC CopenhagenExpected goals in this matchAC Horsens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.92

FC Copenhagen

1.92

AC Horsens

0.92

FC Copenhagen creates 109% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 67 away

2.09

creates per match

0.84

0.99

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

FC Copenhagen

2.09

AC Horsens

0.84

allows per match

FC Copenhagen

0.99

AC Horsens

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Copenhagen+0.00on par

AC Horsens+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Copenhagen ↓

AC Horsens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Copenhagen or draw

82%

FC Copenhagen or AC Horsens

78%

Draw or AC Horsens

39%

Winning margin

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+

36%

AC Horsens wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals

85%

FC Copenhagen 2+ goals

57%

FC Copenhagen 3+ goals

30%

AC Horsens 1+ goals

60%

AC Horsens 2+ goals

23%

AC Horsens 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)

78%

AC Horsens (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Copenhagen at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.99 · 137 matches

AC Horsens away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.76 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Copenhagen attack 2.09 + AC Horsens defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.92

AC Horsens attack 0.84 + FC Copenhagen defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FC Copenhagen scores more

61%

level

22%

AC Horsens scores more

18%

FC Copenhagen at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

14'

22'

38'

53'

59'

60'

A. Pavlović← A. Cornelius

63'

A. Bjerregaard← K. Finnbogason

67'

K. Kusk← R. Falk

69'

F. Santander

70'

J. Greguš← U. Matič

74'

M. Jespersen← P. Nymann

79'

J. Gemmer← L. Kryger

80'

A. Pavlović

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FCAC

Overview

65%Possession35%

10Total Shots1

5Corners3

9Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots1

7On Target0

3Off Target1

Passing

65%Possession35%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2