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FC Copenhagen vs AC Horsens — Superliga 2018

FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
AC Horsens
AC Horsens
R. Falk 27'
Zeca 25'
12/6/2020SuperligaSuperliga · Round 11Parken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

FC Copenhagen60%
×Draw22%
AC Horsens18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Copenhagen
1.90
AC Horsens
0.94

FC Copenhagen creates 102% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 65 away

creates per match

FC Copenhagen
2.05
AC Horsens
0.85

allows per match

FC Copenhagen
1.02
AC Horsens
1.74

finishing

FC Copenhagen+0.00on par
AC Horsens+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Copenhagen ↓

AC Horsens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Copenhagen or draw
82%
FC Copenhagen or AC Horsens
78%
Draw or AC Horsens
40%

Winning margin

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+
35%
AC Horsens wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals
85%
FC Copenhagen 2+ goals
56%
FC Copenhagen 3+ goals
29%
AC Horsens 1+ goals
61%
AC Horsens 2+ goals
24%
AC Horsens 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)
77%
AC Horsens (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Copenhagen at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.02 · 133 matches

AC Horsens away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.74 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Copenhagen attack 2.05 + AC Horsens defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.90

AC Horsens attack 0.85 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FC Copenhagen scores more
60%
level
22%
AC Horsens scores more
18%

FC Copenhagen at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
ZecaFC CopenhagenFC Copenhagen · M
8.2

Match Events

2'
Bryan Oviedo
8'
N. Brock-Madsen← J. Pohl
20'
Hallur Hansson
25'
Zeca↳ Pep Biel
27'
R. Falk
66'
J. Gemmer← B. Jacobsen
67'
J. Jacobsen← C. Tengstedt
68'
N. Thomsen← R. Højlund
76'
R. Mudražija← R. Falk
77'
M. Jensen← R. Frantsen
77'
M. Brajanac← K. Finnbogason

Possession

64%FC

Shots

21FC

Pass accuracy

52%FC

Statistics

FCAC
Overview
64%Possession36%
21Total Shots10
8Corners2
8Fouls13
Shots
21Total Shots10
7On Target4
8Off Target5
6Blocked1
11Inside Box7
10Outside Box3
Passing
64%Possession36%
611Total Passes333
526Accurate Passes267
86%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
8Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Superliga: FC Copenhagen 2–0 AC Horsens

FC Copenhagen beat AC Horsens 2-0 in Superliga on December 6, 2020.

Goals: Zeca (25'), R. Falk (27').

FC Copenhagen controlled possession (64%) and registered 21 shots to 10.

The match was played at Parken in København.