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AC Horsens vs FC Copenhagen — Superliga 2018

AC Horsens
AC Horsens
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen
A. Jacobsen 2'
E. Jelert 90+5'
J. Larsson 54'
H. Haraldsson 52'
D. Vavro 48'
3/12/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 21Nordstern Arena Horsens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

AC Horsens27%
×Draw23%
FC Copenhagen50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Horsens
1.23
FC Copenhagen
1.77

FC Copenhagen creates 44% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 131 away

creates per match

AC Horsens
1.21
FC Copenhagen
1.84

allows per match

AC Horsens
1.70
FC Copenhagen
1.24

finishing

AC Horsens+0.00on par
FC Copenhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Horsens ↓

FC Copenhagen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

AC Horsens or draw
50%
AC Horsens or FC Copenhagen
77%
Draw or FC Copenhagen
73%

Winning margin

AC Horsens wins by 2+
11%
FC Copenhagen wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

AC Horsens 1+ goals
71%
AC Horsens 2+ goals
35%
AC Horsens 3+ goals
13%
FC Copenhagen 1+ goals
83%
FC Copenhagen 2+ goals
53%
FC Copenhagen 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

AC Horsens (draw refunded)
35%
FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Horsens at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 63 matches

FC Copenhagen away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.24 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Horsens attack 1.21 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

FC Copenhagen attack 1.84 + AC Horsens defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AC Horsens scores more
27%
level
23%
FC Copenhagen scores more
50%

FC Copenhagen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
H. HaraldssonFC CopenhagenFC Copenhagen · F
8.3

Match Events

2'
A. Jacobsen
22'
M. Lassen← J. Gomez
48'
D. Vavro↳ M. Daramy
52'
H. Haraldsson
54'
J. Larsson↳ H. Haraldsson
61'
A. Sigurðarson← M. Opondo
62'
E. Just← A. Jacobsen
62'
J. Gemmer← J. Drachmann
62'
W. Clem← R. Falk
67'
Diogo Gonçalves← J. Larsson
73'
V. Lund Jensen← D. Khocholava
73'
A. Cornelius← H. Haraldsson
78'
Denis Vavro
83'
S. Makienok← J. Buus
90+5'
E. Jelert↳ A. Cornelius

Possession

37%AC

Shots

8AC

Pass accuracy

46%AC

Statistics

ACFC
Overview
37%Possession63%
8Total Shots12
5Corners5
11Fouls6
Shots
8Total Shots12
4On Target7
1Off Target4
3Blocked1
4Inside Box6
4Outside Box6
Passing
37%Possession63%
341Total Passes593
238Accurate Passes492
70%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls6
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Superliga: AC Horsens 1–4 FC Copenhagen

FC Copenhagen beat AC Horsens 4-1 in Superliga on March 12, 2023.

Goals: A. Jacobsen (2'), D. Vavro (48'), H. Haraldsson (52'), J. Larsson (54'), E. Jelert (90+5').

FC Copenhagen controlled possession (63%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Nordstern Arena Horsens in Horsens.