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Toronto FC vs New York City FC — Major League Soccer 2026

Toronto FC
Toronto FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
New York City FC
New York City FC
4/26/2025Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 10BMO Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Toronto FC35%
×Draw28%
New York City FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toronto FC
1.17
New York City FC
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 19 away

creates per match

Toronto FC
1.04
New York City FC
1.23

allows per match

Toronto FC
1.18
New York City FC
1.30

finishing

Toronto FC+0.24scores more
New York City FC+0.14scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toronto FC ↓

New York City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Toronto FC or draw
63%
Toronto FC or New York City FC
72%
Draw or New York City FC
65%

Winning margin

Toronto FC wins by 2+
15%
New York City FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Toronto FC 1+ goals
69%
Toronto FC 2+ goals
33%
Toronto FC 3+ goals
11%
New York City FC 1+ goals
70%
New York City FC 2+ goals
34%
New York City FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Toronto FC (draw refunded)
49%
New York City FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toronto FC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.18 · 25 matches

New York City FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toronto FC attack 1.04 + New York City FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

New York City FC attack 1.23 + Toronto FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Toronto FC scores more
35%
level
28%
New York City FC scores more
37%

New York City FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "New York City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: Toronto FC 0–1 New York City FC

New York City FC beat Toronto FC 1-0 in Major League Soccer on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at BMO Field in Toronto.