New York City FC 2–1 Toronto FC: Result & Stats

New York City FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Toronto FC

K. O'Toole 64'

S. Rodríguez 24'

J. Marshall-Rutty 7'

3/16/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 6Yankee Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

New York City FC44%

×Draw26%

Toronto FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

New York City FCExpected goals in this matchToronto FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.15

New York City FC

1.46

Toronto FC

1.15

New York City FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

1.58

creates per match

1.03

1.27

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

New York City FC

1.58

Toronto FC

1.03

allows per match

New York City FC

1.27

Toronto FC

1.34

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

New York City FC+0.42scores more

Toronto FC+0.08on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York City FC ↓

Toronto FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

New York City FC or draw

70%

New York City FC or Toronto FC

74%

Draw or Toronto FC

56%

Winning margin

New York City FC wins by 2+

22%

Toronto FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

New York City FC 1+ goals

77%

New York City FC 2+ goals

43%

New York City FC 3+ goals

18%

Toronto FC 1+ goals

68%

Toronto FC 2+ goals

32%

Toronto FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

New York City FC (draw refunded)

60%

Toronto FC (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York City FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 23 matches

Toronto FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York City FC attack 1.58 + Toronto FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.46

Toronto FC attack 1.03 + New York City FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

New York City FC scores more

44%

level

26%

Toronto FC scores more

30%

New York City FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "New York City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Thiago Martins

New York City FC · D

7.6

Match Events

7'

J. Marshall-Rutty↳ Alonso Coello

23'

Kevin Long

24'

S. Rodríguez

28'

Federico Bernardeschi

42'

Birk Risa

46'

K. Franklin← M. Longstaff

57'

K. Thompson← P. Owusu

63'

Keaton Parks

64'

K. O'Toole↳ J. Fernández

67'

Keaton ParksCard upgrade

68'

Keaton Parks

70'

A. Perea← J. Fernández

71'

Shane O'Neill

75'

A. Akinola← Alonso Coello

75'

T. Spicer← S. Rosted

83'

T. Gray← H. Wolf

90+5'

90+3'

90+7'

90+7'

90'

90+3'

D. Kerr← J. Marshall-Rutty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewToronto

Overview

53%Possession47%

17Total Shots13

1.38Expected Goals (xG)1.35

6Corners4

15Fouls22

Shots

17Total Shots13

9On Target1

6Off Target7

2Blocked5

10Inside Box9

7Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

451Total Passes390

384Accurate Passes313

85%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

15Fouls22

4Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2

Match Recap: New York City FC vs Toronto FC

New York City FC beat Toronto FC 2-1 in Major League Soccer on March 16, 2024.

Goals: J. Marshall-Rutty (7'), S. Rodríguez (24'), K. O'Toole (64').

New York City FC controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at Yankee Stadium in New York City.

New York City FC vs Toronto FC — Major League Soccer 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: New York City FC vs Toronto FC