Toronto FC 1–2 Nashville SC: Result & Stats

Toronto FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Nashville SC

J. Osorio 90'

S. Surridge 89', 57'

5/24/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 15BMO Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Toronto FC37%

×Draw27%

Nashville SC36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Toronto FCExpected goals in this matchNashville SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.20

Toronto FC

1.23

Nashville SC

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 18 away

1.04

creates per match

1.19

1.21

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Toronto FC

1.04

Nashville SC

1.19

allows per match

Toronto FC

1.21

Nashville SC

1.41

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Toronto FC+0.25scores more

Nashville SC+0.03on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toronto FC ↓

Nashville SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Toronto FC or draw

64%

Toronto FC or Nashville SC

73%

Draw or Nashville SC

63%

Winning margin

Toronto FC wins by 2+

16%

Nashville SC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Toronto FC 1+ goals

71%

Toronto FC 2+ goals

35%

Toronto FC 3+ goals

13%

Nashville SC 1+ goals

70%

Nashville SC 2+ goals

34%

Nashville SC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Toronto FC (draw refunded)

51%

Nashville SC (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toronto FC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Nashville SC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.41 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toronto FC attack 1.04 + Nashville SC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Nashville SC attack 1.19 + Toronto FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Toronto FC scores more

37%

level

27%

Nashville SC scores more

36%

Toronto FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Toronto FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

S. Surridge

Nashville SC · F

8.7

Match Events

57'

S. Surridge

58'

A. Qasem← J. Shaffelburg

63'

J. Osorio← D. Flores

64'

A. Coello← M. Dominguez

73'

Z. Monlouis← S. Rosted

73'

T. Spicer← O. Brynhildsen

73'

W. Zimmerman← J. Palacios

86'

Federico Bernardeschi

86'

B. Acosta← P. Yazbek

86'

J. Perez← A. Muyl

89'

S. Surridge↳ J. Perez

90+2'

Kosi Thompson

90'

C. Sharp← T. Corbeanu

90'

J. Osorio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TorontoNashville

Overview

50%Possession50%

9Total Shots17

0.70Expected Goals (xG)2.02

3Corners6

7Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots17

3On Target6

4Off Target6

2Blocked5

8Inside Box13

1Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

432Total Passes424

351Accurate Passes342

81%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

-0.20Goals Prevented-0.20

Discipline

7Fouls9

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2