Toronto FC 1–2 Nashville SC: Result & Stats

Toronto FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Nashville SC

Alonso Coello 34'

S. Surridge 90', 65'

6/19/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 26BMO Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Toronto FC37%

×Draw28%

Nashville SC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Toronto FCExpected goals in this matchNashville SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.17

Toronto FC

1.21

Nashville SC

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 19 away

1.04

creates per match

1.15

1.18

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Toronto FC

1.04

Nashville SC

1.15

allows per match

Toronto FC

1.18

Nashville SC

1.39

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Toronto FC+0.24scores more

Nashville SC+0.06on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toronto FC ↓

Nashville SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Toronto FC or draw

65%

Toronto FC or Nashville SC

72%

Draw or Nashville SC

63%

Winning margin

Toronto FC wins by 2+

16%

Nashville SC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Toronto FC 1+ goals

70%

Toronto FC 2+ goals

34%

Toronto FC 3+ goals

12%

Nashville SC 1+ goals

69%

Nashville SC 2+ goals

33%

Nashville SC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Toronto FC (draw refunded)

51%

Nashville SC (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toronto FC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.18 · 25 matches

Nashville SC away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.39 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toronto FC attack 1.04 + Nashville SC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Nashville SC attack 1.15 + Toronto FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Toronto FC scores more

37%

level

28%

Nashville SC scores more

35%

Toronto FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Toronto FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

S. Surridge

Nashville SC · M

9.0

Match Events

34'

Alonso Coello↳ F. Bernardeschi

46'

S. Davis← B. Anunga

46'

T. Boyd← A. Muyl

62'

J. Marshall-Rutty← L. Insigne

65'

S. Surridge↳ H. Mukhtar

71'

Deybi Flores

71'

Hany Mukhtar

72'

Kevin Long

75'

B. Kallman← W. Zimmerman

81'

K. Franklin← P. Owusu

84'

A. Sejdić← T. Bunbury

85'

F. Ajago← D. Yearwood

89'

D. Kerr← D. Etienne

89'

K. Thompson← Alonso Coello

90'

S. Surridge↳ T. Boyd

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TorontoNashville

Overview

51%Possession49%

17Total Shots11

1.81Expected Goals (xG)0.80

2Corners3

8Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots11

5On Target3

10Off Target7

2Blocked1

9Inside Box8

8Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

509Total Passes483

445Accurate Passes418

87%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

-0.23Goals Prevented-0.23

Discipline

8Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1