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Toronto FC vs Charlotte — Major League Soccer 2026

Toronto FC
Toronto FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Charlotte
Charlotte
5/31/2025Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 17BMO Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Toronto FC40%
×Draw27%
Charlotte32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toronto FC
1.31
Charlotte
1.14

Toronto FC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 13 away

creates per match

Toronto FC
1.04
Charlotte
1.10

allows per match

Toronto FC
1.18
Charlotte
1.58

finishing

Toronto FC+0.24scores more
Charlotte+0.13scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toronto FC ↓

Charlotte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Toronto FC or draw
68%
Toronto FC or Charlotte
73%
Draw or Charlotte
60%

Winning margin

Toronto FC wins by 2+
18%
Charlotte wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Toronto FC 1+ goals
73%
Toronto FC 2+ goals
38%
Toronto FC 3+ goals
14%
Charlotte 1+ goals
68%
Charlotte 2+ goals
32%
Charlotte 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Toronto FC (draw refunded)
56%
Charlotte (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toronto FC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.18 · 25 matches

Charlotte away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.58 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toronto FC attack 1.04 + Charlotte defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Charlotte attack 1.10 + Toronto FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Toronto FC scores more
40%
level
27%
Charlotte scores more
32%

Toronto FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Toronto FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Toronto FC vs Charlotte

Charlotte beat Toronto FC 2-0 in Major League Soccer on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at BMO Field in Toronto.