Charlotte 3–2 Toronto FC: Result & Stats

Charlotte

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Toronto FC

4/13/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 11Bank of America Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Charlotte43%

×Draw26%

Toronto FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharlotteExpected goals in this matchToronto FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.17

Charlotte

1.45

Toronto FC

1.17

Charlotte creates 24% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

1.56

creates per match

1.03

1.31

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Charlotte

1.56

Toronto FC

1.03

allows per match

Charlotte

1.31

Toronto FC

1.34

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Charlotte+0.11scores more

Toronto FC+0.08on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlotte ↓

Toronto FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Charlotte or draw

69%

Charlotte or Toronto FC

74%

Draw or Toronto FC

57%

Winning margin

Charlotte wins by 2+

21%

Toronto FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Charlotte 1+ goals

77%

Charlotte 2+ goals

42%

Charlotte 3+ goals

18%

Toronto FC 1+ goals

69%

Toronto FC 2+ goals

33%

Toronto FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Charlotte (draw refunded)

59%

Toronto FC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlotte at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.31 · 18 matches

Toronto FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlotte attack 1.56 + Toronto FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.45

Toronto FC attack 1.03 + Charlotte defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Charlotte scores more

43%

level

26%

Toronto FC scores more

31%

Charlotte at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Charlotte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff