Toronto Awaba Stags 3–3 Thornton Redbacks

Toronto Awaba Stags

FT

3 – 3

Thornton Redbacks

2/24/2024

NNSW League 1 · Round 1Lyall Peacock Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Toronto Awaba Stags45%

×Draw23%

Thornton Redbacks32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Toronto Awaba StagsExpected goals in this matchThornton Redbacks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.50

Toronto Awaba Stags

1.81

Thornton Redbacks

1.50

Toronto Awaba Stags creates 21% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 21 away

1.48

creates per match

1.62

1.38

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Toronto Awaba Stags

1.48

Thornton Redbacks

1.62

allows per match

Toronto Awaba Stags

1.38

Thornton Redbacks

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toronto Awaba Stags+0.00on par

Thornton Redbacks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toronto Awaba Stags ↓

Thornton Redbacks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Toronto Awaba Stags or draw

68%

Toronto Awaba Stags or Thornton Redbacks

77%

Draw or Thornton Redbacks

55%

Winning margin

Toronto Awaba Stags wins by 2+

24%

Thornton Redbacks wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Toronto Awaba Stags 1+ goals

84%

Toronto Awaba Stags 2+ goals

54%

Toronto Awaba Stags 3+ goals

27%

Thornton Redbacks 1+ goals

78%

Thornton Redbacks 2+ goals

44%

Thornton Redbacks 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Toronto Awaba Stags (draw refunded)

58%

Thornton Redbacks (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toronto Awaba Stags at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

Thornton Redbacks away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.14 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toronto Awaba Stags attack 1.48 + Thornton Redbacks defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.81

Thornton Redbacks attack 1.62 + Toronto Awaba Stags defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Toronto Awaba Stags scores more

45%

level

23%

Thornton Redbacks scores more

32%

Toronto Awaba Stags at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Toronto Awaba Stags will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff