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Thornton Redbacks vs Toronto Awaba Stags — NNSW League 1 2026

Thornton Redbacks
Thornton Redbacks
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Toronto Awaba Stags
Toronto Awaba Stags
4/5/2025NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 4Thornton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Thornton Redbacks23%
×Draw19%
Toronto Awaba Stags58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thornton Redbacks
1.56
Toronto Awaba Stags
2.52

Toronto Awaba Stags creates 62% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 27 away

creates per match

Thornton Redbacks
1.43
Toronto Awaba Stags
2.56

allows per match

Thornton Redbacks
2.48
Toronto Awaba Stags
1.70

finishing

Thornton Redbacks+0.00on par
Toronto Awaba Stags+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thornton Redbacks ↓

Toronto Awaba Stags →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Thornton Redbacks or draw
42%
Thornton Redbacks or Toronto Awaba Stags
81%
Draw or Toronto Awaba Stags
77%

Winning margin

Thornton Redbacks wins by 2+
10%
Toronto Awaba Stags wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Thornton Redbacks 1+ goals
79%
Thornton Redbacks 2+ goals
46%
Thornton Redbacks 3+ goals
21%
Toronto Awaba Stags 1+ goals
92%
Toronto Awaba Stags 2+ goals
71%
Toronto Awaba Stags 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Thornton Redbacks (draw refunded)
29%
Toronto Awaba Stags (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thornton Redbacks at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.48 · 21 matches

Toronto Awaba Stags away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thornton Redbacks attack 1.43 + Toronto Awaba Stags defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.56

Toronto Awaba Stags attack 2.56 + Thornton Redbacks defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Thornton Redbacks scores more
23%
level
19%
Toronto Awaba Stags scores more
58%

Toronto Awaba Stags at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Toronto Awaba Stags will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NNSW League 1: Thornton Redbacks 0–3 Toronto Awaba Stags

Toronto Awaba Stags beat Thornton Redbacks 3-0 in NNSW League 1 on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Thornton Park in Thornton.