Toronto Awaba Stags 1–0 South Cardiff

Toronto Awaba Stags

FT

1 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

South Cardiff

5/9/2025

NNSW League 1 · Round 8Lyall Peacock Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Toronto Awaba Stags42%

×Draw25%

South Cardiff33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Toronto Awaba StagsExpected goals in this matchSouth Cardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.31

Toronto Awaba Stags

1.52

South Cardiff

1.31

Toronto Awaba Stags creates 16% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

1.48

creates per match

1.25

1.38

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Toronto Awaba Stags

1.48

South Cardiff

1.25

allows per match

Toronto Awaba Stags

1.38

South Cardiff

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toronto Awaba Stags+0.00on par

South Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toronto Awaba Stags ↓

South Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Toronto Awaba Stags or draw

67%

Toronto Awaba Stags or South Cardiff

75%

Draw or South Cardiff

58%

Winning margin

Toronto Awaba Stags wins by 2+

21%

South Cardiff wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Toronto Awaba Stags 1+ goals

78%

Toronto Awaba Stags 2+ goals

45%

Toronto Awaba Stags 3+ goals

20%

South Cardiff 1+ goals

73%

South Cardiff 2+ goals

38%

South Cardiff 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Toronto Awaba Stags (draw refunded)

56%

South Cardiff (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toronto Awaba Stags at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

South Cardiff away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toronto Awaba Stags attack 1.48 + South Cardiff defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

South Cardiff attack 1.25 + Toronto Awaba Stags defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Toronto Awaba Stags scores more

42%

level

25%

South Cardiff scores more

33%

Toronto Awaba Stags at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Toronto Awaba Stags will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff