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South Cardiff vs Toronto Awaba Stags — NNSW League 1 2026

South Cardiff
South Cardiff
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Toronto Awaba Stags
Toronto Awaba Stags
3/28/2026NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

South Cardiff22%
×Draw19%
Toronto Awaba Stags60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Cardiff
1.50
Toronto Awaba Stags
2.55

Toronto Awaba Stags creates 70% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

creates per match

South Cardiff
1.29
Toronto Awaba Stags
2.56

allows per match

South Cardiff
2.54
Toronto Awaba Stags
1.70

finishing

South Cardiff+0.00on par
Toronto Awaba Stags+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Cardiff ↓

Toronto Awaba Stags →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

South Cardiff or draw
40%
South Cardiff or Toronto Awaba Stags
81%
Draw or Toronto Awaba Stags
78%

Winning margin

South Cardiff wins by 2+
9%
Toronto Awaba Stags wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

South Cardiff 1+ goals
78%
South Cardiff 2+ goals
44%
South Cardiff 3+ goals
19%
Toronto Awaba Stags 1+ goals
92%
Toronto Awaba Stags 2+ goals
72%
Toronto Awaba Stags 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

South Cardiff (draw refunded)
27%
Toronto Awaba Stags (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Cardiff at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.54 · 28 matches

Toronto Awaba Stags away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Cardiff attack 1.29 + Toronto Awaba Stags defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.50

Toronto Awaba Stags attack 2.56 + South Cardiff defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

South Cardiff scores more
22%
level
19%
Toronto Awaba Stags scores more
60%

Toronto Awaba Stags at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Toronto Awaba Stags will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NNSW League 1: South Cardiff 1–0 Toronto Awaba Stags

South Cardiff beat Toronto Awaba Stags 1-0 in NNSW League 1 on March 28, 2026.