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Toronto Awaba Stags vs South Cardiff — NNSW League 1 2026

Toronto Awaba Stags
Toronto Awaba Stags
FT
1 – 0
South Cardiff
South Cardiff
3/20/2024NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 5Lyall Peacock Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Toronto Awaba Stags42%
×Draw25%
South Cardiff33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toronto Awaba Stags
1.52
South Cardiff
1.31

Toronto Awaba Stags creates 16% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

creates per match

Toronto Awaba Stags
1.48
South Cardiff
1.25

allows per match

Toronto Awaba Stags
1.38
South Cardiff
1.57

finishing

Toronto Awaba Stags+0.00on par
South Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toronto Awaba Stags ↓

South Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Toronto Awaba Stags or draw
67%
Toronto Awaba Stags or South Cardiff
75%
Draw or South Cardiff
58%

Winning margin

Toronto Awaba Stags wins by 2+
21%
South Cardiff wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Toronto Awaba Stags 1+ goals
78%
Toronto Awaba Stags 2+ goals
45%
Toronto Awaba Stags 3+ goals
20%
South Cardiff 1+ goals
73%
South Cardiff 2+ goals
38%
South Cardiff 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Toronto Awaba Stags (draw refunded)
56%
South Cardiff (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toronto Awaba Stags at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

South Cardiff away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toronto Awaba Stags attack 1.48 + South Cardiff defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

South Cardiff attack 1.25 + Toronto Awaba Stags defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Toronto Awaba Stags scores more
42%
level
25%
South Cardiff scores more
33%

Toronto Awaba Stags at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Toronto Awaba Stags will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NNSW League 1: Toronto Awaba Stags 1–0 South Cardiff

Toronto Awaba Stags beat South Cardiff 1-0 in NNSW League 1 on March 20, 2024.

The match was played at Lyall Peacock Field in Toronto.