Toronto Awaba Stags 0–6 Belmont Swansea

Toronto Awaba Stags

FT

0 – 6

Belmont Swansea

3/24/2024

NNSW League 1 · Round 6Lyall Peacock Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Toronto Awaba Stags22%

×Draw21%

Belmont Swansea58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Toronto Awaba StagsExpected goals in this matchBelmont Swansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

2.15

Toronto Awaba Stags

1.24

Belmont Swansea

2.15

Belmont Swansea creates 73% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 12 away

1.48

creates per match

2.92

1.38

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Toronto Awaba Stags

1.48

Belmont Swansea

2.92

allows per match

Toronto Awaba Stags

1.38

Belmont Swansea

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toronto Awaba Stags+0.00on par

Belmont Swansea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toronto Awaba Stags ↓

Belmont Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Toronto Awaba Stags or draw

42%

Toronto Awaba Stags or Belmont Swansea

79%

Draw or Belmont Swansea

78%

Winning margin

Toronto Awaba Stags wins by 2+

9%

Belmont Swansea wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Toronto Awaba Stags 1+ goals

71%

Toronto Awaba Stags 2+ goals

35%

Toronto Awaba Stags 3+ goals

13%

Belmont Swansea 1+ goals

88%

Belmont Swansea 2+ goals

63%

Belmont Swansea 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Toronto Awaba Stags (draw refunded)

27%

Belmont Swansea (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toronto Awaba Stags at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

Belmont Swansea away — creates 2.92, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toronto Awaba Stags attack 1.48 + Belmont Swansea defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.24

Belmont Swansea attack 2.92 + Toronto Awaba Stags defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Toronto Awaba Stags scores more

22%

level

21%

Belmont Swansea scores more

58%

Belmont Swansea at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Belmont Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff