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Belmont Swansea vs Toronto Awaba Stags — NNSW League 1 2026

Belmont Swansea
Belmont Swansea
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Toronto Awaba Stags
Toronto Awaba Stags
5/18/2024NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 15Blacksmiths Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Belmont Swansea61%
×Draw17%
Toronto Awaba Stags22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belmont Swansea
2.94
Toronto Awaba Stags
1.74

Belmont Swansea creates 69% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 27 away

creates per match

Belmont Swansea
4.17
Toronto Awaba Stags
2.56

allows per match

Belmont Swansea
0.92
Toronto Awaba Stags
1.70

finishing

Belmont Swansea+0.00on par
Toronto Awaba Stags+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belmont Swansea ↓

Toronto Awaba Stags →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Belmont Swansea or draw
78%
Belmont Swansea or Toronto Awaba Stags
83%
Draw or Toronto Awaba Stags
39%

Winning margin

Belmont Swansea wins by 2+
42%
Toronto Awaba Stags wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Belmont Swansea 1+ goals
95%
Belmont Swansea 2+ goals
79%
Belmont Swansea 3+ goals
55%
Toronto Awaba Stags 1+ goals
82%
Toronto Awaba Stags 2+ goals
52%
Toronto Awaba Stags 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Belmont Swansea (draw refunded)
74%
Toronto Awaba Stags (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belmont Swansea at home — creates 4.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Toronto Awaba Stags away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belmont Swansea attack 4.17 + Toronto Awaba Stags defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.94

Toronto Awaba Stags attack 2.56 + Belmont Swansea defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Belmont Swansea scores more
61%
level
17%
Toronto Awaba Stags scores more
22%

Belmont Swansea at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Belmont Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belmont Swansea vs Toronto Awaba Stags

Belmont Swansea and Toronto Awaba Stags drew 2-2 in NNSW League 1 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Blacksmiths Oval in Blacksmiths.