Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Törökszentmiklós vs Tiszaújváros — NB III - Northeast 2019

Törökszentmiklós
Törökszentmiklós
FT
2 – 4
Tiszaújváros
Tiszaújváros
R. Janos 30'
P. Zoltan 13'
D. Balazs 59', 48'
Z. Pap 47', 39'
9/4/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 6Törökszentmiklósi FC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Törökszentmiklós32%
×Draw23%
Tiszaújváros45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Törökszentmiklós
1.50
Tiszaújváros
1.82

Tiszaújváros creates 21% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 110 away

creates per match

Törökszentmiklós
1.26
Tiszaújváros
1.48

allows per match

Törökszentmiklós
2.16
Tiszaújváros
1.74

finishing

Törökszentmiklós+0.00on par
Tiszaújváros+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Törökszentmiklós ↓

Tiszaújváros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Törökszentmiklós or draw
55%
Törökszentmiklós or Tiszaújváros
77%
Draw or Tiszaújváros
68%

Winning margin

Törökszentmiklós wins by 2+
15%
Tiszaújváros wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Törökszentmiklós 1+ goals
78%
Törökszentmiklós 2+ goals
44%
Törökszentmiklós 3+ goals
19%
Tiszaújváros 1+ goals
84%
Tiszaújváros 2+ goals
54%
Tiszaújváros 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Törökszentmiklós (draw refunded)
41%
Tiszaújváros (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Törökszentmiklós at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

Tiszaújváros away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.74 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Törökszentmiklós attack 1.26 + Tiszaújváros defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tiszaújváros attack 1.48 + Törökszentmiklós defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Törökszentmiklós scores more
32%
level
23%
Tiszaújváros scores more
45%

Tiszaújváros at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tiszaújváros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
P. Zoltan
30'
R. Janos
39'
Z. Pap
47'
Z. Pap
48'
D. Balazs
59'
D. Balazs

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Törökszentmiklós vs Tiszaújváros

Tiszaújváros beat Törökszentmiklós 4-2 in NB III - Northeast on September 4, 2021.

Goals: P. Zoltan (13'), R. Janos (30'), Z. Pap (39', 47'), D. Balazs (48', 59').

The match was played at Törökszentmiklósi FC Sporttelep in Törökszentmiklós.