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Tiszaújváros vs Törökszentmiklós — NB III - Northeast 2019

Tiszaújváros
Tiszaújváros
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Törökszentmiklós
Törökszentmiklós
D. Nagy 90+2', 72' (pen)
Z. Pataki 40'
3/13/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 25Sport Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tiszaújváros63%
×Draw20%
Törökszentmiklós18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tiszaújváros
2.18
Törökszentmiklós
1.06

Tiszaújváros creates 106% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tiszaújváros
1.62
Törökszentmiklós
0.63

allows per match

Tiszaújváros
1.49
Törökszentmiklós
2.74

finishing

Tiszaújváros+0.00on par
Törökszentmiklós+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiszaújváros ↓

Törökszentmiklós →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tiszaújváros or draw
82%
Tiszaújváros or Törökszentmiklós
80%
Draw or Törökszentmiklós
37%

Winning margin

Tiszaújváros wins by 2+
39%
Törökszentmiklós wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tiszaújváros 1+ goals
89%
Tiszaújváros 2+ goals
64%
Tiszaújváros 3+ goals
37%
Törökszentmiklós 1+ goals
65%
Törökszentmiklós 2+ goals
29%
Törökszentmiklós 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tiszaújváros (draw refunded)
78%
Törökszentmiklós (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiszaújváros at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

Törökszentmiklós away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiszaújváros attack 1.62 + Törökszentmiklós defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.18

Törökszentmiklós attack 0.63 + Tiszaújváros defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tiszaújváros scores more
63%
level
20%
Törökszentmiklós scores more
18%

Tiszaújváros at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tiszaújváros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
Z. Pataki
72'
D. NagyPenalty
90+2'
D. Nagy
90+3'
P. Gusztafik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Tiszaújváros 2–1 Törökszentmiklós

Tiszaújváros beat Törökszentmiklós 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on March 13, 2022.

Goals: Z. Pataki (40'), D. Nagy (72' pen, 90+2').

The match was played at Sport Park in Tiszaújváros.