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Törökszentmiklós vs Kazincbarcikai — NB III - Northeast 2019

Törökszentmiklós
Törökszentmiklós
FT
0 – 3
Kazincbarcikai
Kazincbarcikai
K. Szilard 81'
M. Laczko 30'
A. Sutto 11'
9/22/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 8Törökszentmiklósi FC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Törökszentmiklós13%
×Draw17%
Kazincbarcikai69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Törökszentmiklós
1.00
Kazincbarcikai
2.48

Kazincbarcikai creates 148% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Törökszentmiklós
1.26
Kazincbarcikai
2.79

allows per match

Törökszentmiklós
2.16
Kazincbarcikai
0.74

finishing

Törökszentmiklós+0.00on par
Kazincbarcikai+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Törökszentmiklós ↓

Kazincbarcikai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Törökszentmiklós or draw
31%
Törökszentmiklós or Kazincbarcikai
83%
Draw or Kazincbarcikai
87%

Winning margin

Törökszentmiklós wins by 2+
5%
Kazincbarcikai wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Törökszentmiklós 1+ goals
63%
Törökszentmiklós 2+ goals
26%
Törökszentmiklós 3+ goals
8%
Kazincbarcikai 1+ goals
92%
Kazincbarcikai 2+ goals
70%
Kazincbarcikai 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Törökszentmiklós (draw refunded)
16%
Kazincbarcikai (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Törökszentmiklós at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

Kazincbarcikai away — creates 2.79, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Törökszentmiklós attack 1.26 + Kazincbarcikai defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.00

Kazincbarcikai attack 2.79 + Törökszentmiklós defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Törökszentmiklós scores more
13%
level
17%
Kazincbarcikai scores more
69%

Kazincbarcikai at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Kazincbarcikai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
A. Sutto
30'
M. Laczko
81'
K. Szilard

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Törökszentmiklós vs Kazincbarcikai

Kazincbarcikai beat Törökszentmiklós 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on September 22, 2021.

Goals: A. Sutto (11'), M. Laczko (30'), K. Szilard (81').

The match was played at Törökszentmiklósi FC Sporttelep in Törökszentmiklós.