Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kazincbarcikai vs Törökszentmiklós — NB III - Northeast 2019

Kazincbarcikai
Kazincbarcikai
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Törökszentmiklós
Törökszentmiklós
G. Palinkas 90+2'
L. Pinyasko 84'
J. Rimoczi 31'
3/27/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 27Kolorcity Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kazincbarcikai82%
×Draw12%
Törökszentmiklós5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kazincbarcikai
2.77
Törökszentmiklós
0.58

Kazincbarcikai creates 378% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kazincbarcikai
2.79
Törökszentmiklós
0.63

allows per match

Kazincbarcikai
0.53
Törökszentmiklós
2.74

finishing

Kazincbarcikai+0.00on par
Törökszentmiklós+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazincbarcikai ↓

Törökszentmiklós →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kazincbarcikai or draw
95%
Kazincbarcikai or Törökszentmiklós
88%
Draw or Törökszentmiklós
18%

Winning margin

Kazincbarcikai wins by 2+
62%
Törökszentmiklós wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Kazincbarcikai 1+ goals
94%
Kazincbarcikai 2+ goals
76%
Kazincbarcikai 3+ goals
51%
Törökszentmiklós 1+ goals
44%
Törökszentmiklós 2+ goals
12%
Törökszentmiklós 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Kazincbarcikai (draw refunded)
94%
Törökszentmiklós (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazincbarcikai at home — creates 2.79, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Törökszentmiklós away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazincbarcikai attack 2.79 + Törökszentmiklós defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.77

Törökszentmiklós attack 0.63 + Kazincbarcikai defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Kazincbarcikai scores more
82%
level
12%
Törökszentmiklós scores more
5%

Kazincbarcikai at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Kazincbarcikai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
J. Rimoczi
84'
L. Pinyasko
90+2'
I. Telinger
90+2'
G. Palinkas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Kazincbarcikai 2–1 Törökszentmiklós

Kazincbarcikai beat Törökszentmiklós 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on March 27, 2022.

Goals: J. Rimoczi (31'), L. Pinyasko (84'), G. Palinkas (90+2').

The match was played at Kolorcity Aréna in Kazincbarcika.