Törökszentmiklós 0–1 Füzesgyarmati: Result & Stats

Törökszentmiklós

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Füzesgyarmati

5/15/2022

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 36Törökszentmiklósi FC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Törökszentmiklós33%

×Draw24%

Füzesgyarmati44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TörökszentmiklósExpected goals in this matchFüzesgyarmati

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.70

Törökszentmiklós

1.44

Füzesgyarmati

1.70

Füzesgyarmati creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 67 away

1.26

creates per match

1.24

2.16

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Törökszentmiklós

1.26

Füzesgyarmati

1.24

allows per match

Törökszentmiklós

2.16

Füzesgyarmati

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Törökszentmiklós+0.00on par

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Törökszentmiklós ↓

Füzesgyarmati →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Törökszentmiklós or draw

56%

Törökszentmiklós or Füzesgyarmati

76%

Draw or Füzesgyarmati

67%

Winning margin

Törökszentmiklós wins by 2+

15%

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Törökszentmiklós 1+ goals

76%

Törökszentmiklós 2+ goals

42%

Törökszentmiklós 3+ goals

18%

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals

82%

Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals

51%

Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Törökszentmiklós (draw refunded)

43%

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Törökszentmiklós at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

Füzesgyarmati away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.63 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Törökszentmiklós attack 1.26 + Füzesgyarmati defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.24 + Törökszentmiklós defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Törökszentmiklós scores more

33%

level

24%

Füzesgyarmati scores more

44%

Füzesgyarmati at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Füzesgyarmati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff