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Füzesgyarmati vs Törökszentmiklós — NB III - Northeast 2019

Füzesgyarmati
Füzesgyarmati
FT
3 – 3
Törökszentmiklós
Törökszentmiklós
11/14/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 17Lázár Gyula Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Füzesgyarmati70%
×Draw18%
Törökszentmiklós12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Füzesgyarmati
2.28
Törökszentmiklós
0.81

Füzesgyarmati creates 181% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 19 away

creates per match

Füzesgyarmati
1.82
Törökszentmiklós
0.63

allows per match

Füzesgyarmati
1.00
Törökszentmiklós
2.74

finishing

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par
Törökszentmiklós+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Füzesgyarmati ↓

Törökszentmiklós →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Füzesgyarmati or draw
88%
Füzesgyarmati or Törökszentmiklós
82%
Draw or Törökszentmiklós
30%

Winning margin

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+
47%
Törökszentmiklós wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals
90%
Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals
66%
Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals
39%
Törökszentmiklós 1+ goals
56%
Törökszentmiklós 2+ goals
19%
Törökszentmiklós 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)
86%
Törökszentmiklós (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Füzesgyarmati at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 65 matches

Törökszentmiklós away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.82 + Törökszentmiklós defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.28

Törökszentmiklós attack 0.63 + Füzesgyarmati defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Füzesgyarmati scores more
70%
level
18%
Törökszentmiklós scores more
12%

Füzesgyarmati at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Füzesgyarmati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Füzesgyarmati 3–3 Törökszentmiklós

Füzesgyarmati and Törökszentmiklós drew 3-3 in NB III - Northeast on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Lázár Gyula Sporttelep in Füzesgyarmat.