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Törökszentmiklós vs DEAC — NB III - Northeast 2019

Törökszentmiklós
Törökszentmiklós
FT
0 – 4
DEAC
DEAC
8/11/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 2Törökszentmiklósi FC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Törökszentmiklós23%
×Draw22%
DEAC54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Törökszentmiklós
1.17
DEAC
1.91

DEAC creates 63% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 92 away

creates per match

Törökszentmiklós
1.26
DEAC
1.65

allows per match

Törökszentmiklós
2.16
DEAC
1.07

finishing

Törökszentmiklós+0.00on par
DEAC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Törökszentmiklós ↓

DEAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Törökszentmiklós or draw
46%
Törökszentmiklós or DEAC
78%
Draw or DEAC
77%

Winning margin

Törökszentmiklós wins by 2+
9%
DEAC wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Törökszentmiklós 1+ goals
69%
Törökszentmiklós 2+ goals
33%
Törökszentmiklós 3+ goals
11%
DEAC 1+ goals
85%
DEAC 2+ goals
57%
DEAC 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Törökszentmiklós (draw refunded)
30%
DEAC (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Törökszentmiklós at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

DEAC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.07 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Törökszentmiklós attack 1.26 + DEAC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.17

DEAC attack 1.65 + Törökszentmiklós defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Törökszentmiklós scores more
23%
level
22%
DEAC scores more
54%

DEAC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "DEAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Törökszentmiklós 0–4 DEAC

DEAC beat Törökszentmiklós 4-0 in NB III - Northeast on August 11, 2021.

The match was played at Törökszentmiklósi FC Sporttelep in Törökszentmiklós.