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DEAC vs Törökszentmiklós — NB III - Northeast 2019

DEAC
DEAC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Törökszentmiklós
Törökszentmiklós
2/13/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 21Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

DEAC76%
×Draw15%
Törökszentmiklós8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEAC
2.50
Törökszentmiklós
0.70

DEAC creates 257% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 19 away

creates per match

DEAC
2.25
Törökszentmiklós
0.63

allows per match

DEAC
0.76
Törökszentmiklós
2.74

finishing

DEAC+0.00on par
Törökszentmiklós+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEAC ↓

Törökszentmiklós →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

DEAC or draw
92%
DEAC or Törökszentmiklós
85%
Draw or Törökszentmiklós
24%

Winning margin

DEAC wins by 2+
54%
Törökszentmiklós wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

DEAC 1+ goals
92%
DEAC 2+ goals
71%
DEAC 3+ goals
45%
Törökszentmiklós 1+ goals
50%
Törökszentmiklós 2+ goals
16%
Törökszentmiklós 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

DEAC (draw refunded)
90%
Törökszentmiklós (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEAC at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.76 · 91 matches

Törökszentmiklós away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEAC attack 2.25 + Törökszentmiklós defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.50

Törökszentmiklós attack 0.63 + DEAC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

DEAC scores more
76%
level
15%
Törökszentmiklós scores more
8%

DEAC at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "DEAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: DEAC vs Törökszentmiklós

DEAC beat Törökszentmiklós 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on February 13, 2022.

The match was played at Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion in Debrecen.