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Torns vs Falkenbergs FF — Ettan - Södra 2019

Torns
Torns
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
10/29/2022Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 29Tornvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Torns28%
×Draw25%
Falkenbergs FF48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torns
1.18
Falkenbergs FF
1.62

Falkenbergs FF creates 37% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 45 away

creates per match

Torns
1.46
Falkenbergs FF
1.91

allows per match

Torns
1.33
Falkenbergs FF
0.89

finishing

Torns+0.00on par
Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torns ↓

Falkenbergs FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Torns or draw
52%
Torns or Falkenbergs FF
75%
Draw or Falkenbergs FF
72%

Winning margin

Torns wins by 2+
11%
Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Torns 1+ goals
69%
Torns 2+ goals
33%
Torns 3+ goals
12%
Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
80%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
48%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Torns (draw refunded)
37%
Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torns at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.33 · 90 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torns attack 1.46 + Falkenbergs FF defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.18

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.91 + Torns defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Torns scores more
28%
level
25%
Falkenbergs FF scores more
48%

Falkenbergs FF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Falkenbergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torns vs Falkenbergs FF

Torns and Falkenbergs FF drew 2-2 in Ettan - Södra on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Tornvallen in Lund.