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Falkenbergs FF vs Torns — Ettan - Södra 2019

Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Torns
Torns
5/18/2024Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 9Falcon Alkoholfri Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Falkenbergs FF65%
×Draw21%
Torns15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falkenbergs FF
1.99
Torns
0.82

Falkenbergs FF creates 143% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 89 away

creates per match

Falkenbergs FF
2.24
Torns
1.10

allows per match

Falkenbergs FF
0.53
Torns
1.74

finishing

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par
Torns+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkenbergs FF ↓

Torns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Falkenbergs FF or draw
85%
Falkenbergs FF or Torns
79%
Draw or Torns
35%

Winning margin

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
40%
Torns wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
86%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
59%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
32%
Torns 1+ goals
56%
Torns 2+ goals
20%
Torns 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
81%
Torns (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkenbergs FF at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.53 · 45 matches

Torns away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.74 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkenbergs FF attack 2.24 + Torns defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.99

Torns attack 1.10 + Falkenbergs FF defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Falkenbergs FF scores more
65%
level
21%
Torns scores more
15%

Falkenbergs FF at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Falkenbergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Södra: Falkenbergs FF 5–0 Torns

Falkenbergs FF beat Torns 5-0 in Ettan - Södra on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena in Falkenberg.