Tormenta 2–2 Northern Colorado: Result & Stats

Tormenta

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Northern Colorado

8/23/2023

USL League One · Round 15Tormenta Stadium at Optim Sports Medicine Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tormenta36%

×Draw26%

Northern Colorado38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TormentaExpected goals in this matchNorthern Colorado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.39

Tormenta

1.34

Northern Colorado

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 43 away

1.53

creates per match

1.26

1.52

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Tormenta

1.53

Northern Colorado

1.26

allows per match

Tormenta

1.52

Northern Colorado

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tormenta+0.00on par

Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tormenta ↓

Northern Colorado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tormenta or draw

62%

Tormenta or Northern Colorado

74%

Draw or Northern Colorado

64%

Winning margin

Tormenta wins by 2+

16%

Northern Colorado wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Tormenta 1+ goals

74%

Tormenta 2+ goals

39%

Tormenta 3+ goals

15%

Northern Colorado 1+ goals

75%

Northern Colorado 2+ goals

40%

Northern Colorado 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Tormenta (draw refunded)

48%

Northern Colorado (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tormenta at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

Northern Colorado away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tormenta attack 1.53 + Northern Colorado defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.34

Northern Colorado attack 1.26 + Tormenta defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tormenta scores more

36%

level

26%

Northern Colorado scores more

38%

Northern Colorado at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Northern Colorado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff