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Northern Colorado vs Tormenta — USL League One 2019

Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tormenta
Tormenta
10/6/2024USL League OneUSL League One · Round 134Rivers Equipment Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Northern Colorado49%
×Draw24%
Tormenta28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern Colorado
1.75
Tormenta
1.27

Northern Colorado creates 38% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 94 away

creates per match

Northern Colorado
1.95
Tormenta
1.40

allows per match

Northern Colorado
1.14
Tormenta
1.55

finishing

Northern Colorado+0.00on par
Tormenta+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Colorado ↓

Tormenta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Northern Colorado or draw
72%
Northern Colorado or Tormenta
76%
Draw or Tormenta
51%

Winning margin

Northern Colorado wins by 2+
26%
Tormenta wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Northern Colorado 1+ goals
83%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
52%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
25%
Tormenta 1+ goals
72%
Tormenta 2+ goals
36%
Tormenta 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
64%
Tormenta (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Colorado at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

Tormenta away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.55 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Colorado attack 1.95 + Tormenta defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.75

Tormenta attack 1.40 + Northern Colorado defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Northern Colorado scores more
49%
level
24%
Tormenta scores more
28%

Northern Colorado at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Northern Colorado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Northern Colorado vs Tormenta

Northern Colorado beat Tormenta 4-0 in USL League One on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at 4Rivers Equipment Stadium in Windsor, Colorado.