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Tormenta vs Lansing Ignite — USL League One 2019

Tormenta
Tormenta
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lansing Ignite
Lansing Ignite
7/28/2019USL League OneUSL League One · Round 9Erk Russell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Tormenta38%
×Draw24%
Lansing Ignite38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tormenta
1.52
Lansing Ignite
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 14 away

creates per match

Tormenta
1.53
Lansing Ignite
1.50

allows per match

Tormenta
1.52
Lansing Ignite
1.50

finishing

Tormenta+0.00on par
Lansing Ignite+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tormenta ↓

Lansing Ignite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tormenta or draw
62%
Tormenta or Lansing Ignite
76%
Draw or Lansing Ignite
62%

Winning margin

Tormenta wins by 2+
18%
Lansing Ignite wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tormenta 1+ goals
78%
Tormenta 2+ goals
45%
Tormenta 3+ goals
20%
Lansing Ignite 1+ goals
78%
Lansing Ignite 2+ goals
44%
Lansing Ignite 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tormenta (draw refunded)
50%
Lansing Ignite (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tormenta at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

Lansing Ignite away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tormenta attack 1.53 + Lansing Ignite defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Lansing Ignite attack 1.50 + Tormenta defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tormenta scores more
38%
level
24%
Lansing Ignite scores more
38%

Tormenta at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tormenta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League One: Tormenta 1–1 Lansing Ignite

Tormenta and Lansing Ignite drew 1-1 in USL League One on July 28, 2019.

The match was played at Erk Russell Park in Statesboro, Georgia.