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Lansing Ignite vs Tormenta — USL League One 2019

Lansing Ignite
Lansing Ignite
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tormenta
Tormenta
9/21/2019USL League OneUSL League One · Round 13Cooley Law School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lansing Ignite48%
×Draw24%
Tormenta28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lansing Ignite
1.71
Tormenta
1.26

Lansing Ignite creates 36% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 94 away

creates per match

Lansing Ignite
1.87
Tormenta
1.40

allows per match

Lansing Ignite
1.13
Tormenta
1.55

finishing

Lansing Ignite+0.00on par
Tormenta+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lansing Ignite ↓

Tormenta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lansing Ignite or draw
72%
Lansing Ignite or Tormenta
76%
Draw or Tormenta
52%

Winning margin

Lansing Ignite wins by 2+
26%
Tormenta wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lansing Ignite 1+ goals
82%
Lansing Ignite 2+ goals
51%
Lansing Ignite 3+ goals
24%
Tormenta 1+ goals
72%
Tormenta 2+ goals
36%
Tormenta 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lansing Ignite (draw refunded)
63%
Tormenta (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lansing Ignite at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Tormenta away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.55 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lansing Ignite attack 1.87 + Tormenta defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.71

Tormenta attack 1.40 + Lansing Ignite defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lansing Ignite scores more
48%
level
24%
Tormenta scores more
28%

Lansing Ignite at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lansing Ignite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League One: Lansing Ignite 1–1 Tormenta

Lansing Ignite and Tormenta drew 1-1 in USL League One on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Cooley Law School Stadium in Lansing, Michigan.