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Tormenta II vs The Villages — USL League Two 2018

Tormenta II
Tormenta IIadvanced
FT
3 – 1
The Villages
The Villages
7/19/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - Semi-finalsMike Rose Soccer Complex (Memphis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tormenta II46%
×Draw26%
The Villages29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tormenta II
1.52
The Villages
1.14

Tormenta II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 42 away

creates per match

Tormenta II
2.25
The Villages
1.52

allows per match

Tormenta II
0.75
The Villages
0.79

finishing

Tormenta II+0.00on par
The Villages+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tormenta II ↓

The Villages →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tormenta II or draw
71%
Tormenta II or The Villages
74%
Draw or The Villages
54%

Winning margin

Tormenta II wins by 2+
23%
The Villages wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tormenta II 1+ goals
78%
Tormenta II 2+ goals
45%
Tormenta II 3+ goals
20%
The Villages 1+ goals
68%
The Villages 2+ goals
32%
The Villages 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tormenta II (draw refunded)
62%
The Villages (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tormenta II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

The Villages away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.79 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tormenta II attack 2.25 + The Villages defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.52

The Villages attack 1.52 + Tormenta II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tormenta II scores more
46%
level
26%
The Villages scores more
29%

Tormenta II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tormenta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Tormenta II 3–1 The Villages

Tormenta II beat The Villages 3-1 in USL League Two on July 19, 2019.

The match was played at Mike Rose Soccer Complex (Memphis).