Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

The Villages vs Tormenta II — USL League Two 2018

The Villages
The Villages
AET
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Tormenta II
Tormenta IIadvanced
7/18/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - Semi-finalsTowneBank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

The Villages51%
×Draw22%
Tormenta II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

The Villages
2.03
Tormenta II
1.46

The Villages creates 39% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 23 away

creates per match

The Villages
2.80
Tormenta II
2.13

allows per match

The Villages
0.80
Tormenta II
1.26

finishing

The Villages+0.00on par
Tormenta II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Villages ↓

Tormenta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

The Villages or draw
72%
The Villages or Tormenta II
78%
Draw or Tormenta II
49%

Winning margin

The Villages wins by 2+
29%
Tormenta II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

The Villages 1+ goals
87%
The Villages 2+ goals
60%
The Villages 3+ goals
33%
Tormenta II 1+ goals
77%
Tormenta II 2+ goals
43%
Tormenta II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

The Villages (draw refunded)
65%
Tormenta II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Villages at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Tormenta II away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Villages attack 2.80 + Tormenta II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 2.03

Tormenta II attack 2.13 + The Villages defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

The Villages scores more
51%
level
22%
Tormenta II scores more
28%

The Villages at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "The Villages will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

The Villages 2 – 4 Tormenta II

Tormenta II beat The Villages 4-2 in USL League Two on July 18, 2021.

The match was played at TowneBank Stadium in Newport News, Virginia.