Tormenta II 2–0 East Atlanta: Result & Stats

Tormenta II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

East Atlanta

5/17/2022

USL League Two · Round 6Optim Sports Medicine Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tormenta II65%

×Draw19%

East Atlanta16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tormenta IIExpected goals in this matchEast Atlanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.00

Tormenta II

2.25

East Atlanta

1.00

Tormenta II creates 125% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 39 away

2.25

creates per match

1.26

0.75

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Tormenta II

2.25

East Atlanta

1.26

allows per match

Tormenta II

0.75

East Atlanta

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tormenta II+0.00on par

East Atlanta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tormenta II ↓

East Atlanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Tormenta II or draw

84%

Tormenta II or East Atlanta

81%

Draw or East Atlanta

35%

Winning margin

Tormenta II wins by 2+

42%

East Atlanta wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Tormenta II 1+ goals

89%

Tormenta II 2+ goals

65%

Tormenta II 3+ goals

39%

East Atlanta 1+ goals

63%

East Atlanta 2+ goals

26%

East Atlanta 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tormenta II (draw refunded)

81%

East Atlanta (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tormenta II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

East Atlanta away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.26 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tormenta II attack 2.25 + East Atlanta defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.25

East Atlanta attack 1.26 + Tormenta II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Tormenta II scores more

65%

level

19%

East Atlanta scores more

16%

Tormenta II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Tormenta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff