East Atlanta 2–1 Tormenta II: Result & Stats

East Atlanta

FT

2 – 1

Tormenta II

6/8/2021

USL League Two · Round 21RYSA Soccerplex Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

East Atlanta24%

×Draw21%

Tormenta II55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

East AtlantaExpected goals in this matchTormenta II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

2.10

East Atlanta

1.32

Tormenta II

2.10

Tormenta II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 23 away

1.39

creates per match

2.13

2.08

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

East Atlanta

1.39

Tormenta II

2.13

allows per match

East Atlanta

2.08

Tormenta II

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

East Atlanta+0.00on par

Tormenta II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Atlanta ↓

Tormenta II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

East Atlanta or draw

45%

East Atlanta or Tormenta II

79%

Draw or Tormenta II

76%

Winning margin

East Atlanta wins by 2+

10%

Tormenta II wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

East Atlanta 1+ goals

73%

East Atlanta 2+ goals

38%

East Atlanta 3+ goals

15%

Tormenta II 1+ goals

88%

Tormenta II 2+ goals

62%

Tormenta II 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

East Atlanta (draw refunded)

30%

Tormenta II (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Atlanta at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.08 · 38 matches

Tormenta II away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Atlanta attack 1.39 + Tormenta II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Tormenta II attack 2.13 + East Atlanta defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

East Atlanta scores more

24%

level

21%

Tormenta II scores more

55%

Tormenta II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tormenta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff