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Torlak vs Stepojevac Vaga — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Torlak
Torlak
FT
0 – 1
Stepojevac Vaga
Stepojevac Vaga
3/3/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 16Sportski Centar Ada Ciganlija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Torlak39%
×Draw25%
Stepojevac Vaga36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torlak
1.44
Stepojevac Vaga
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 85 away

creates per match

Torlak
1.55
Stepojevac Vaga
1.11

allows per match

Torlak
1.64
Stepojevac Vaga
1.32

finishing

Torlak+0.00on par
Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torlak ↓

Stepojevac Vaga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Torlak or draw
64%
Torlak or Stepojevac Vaga
75%
Draw or Stepojevac Vaga
61%

Winning margin

Torlak wins by 2+
18%
Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Torlak 1+ goals
76%
Torlak 2+ goals
42%
Torlak 3+ goals
18%
Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals
75%
Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals
40%
Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Torlak (draw refunded)
52%
Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torlak at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

Stepojevac Vaga away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torlak attack 1.55 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.44

Stepojevac Vaga attack 1.11 + Torlak defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Torlak scores more
39%
level
25%
Stepojevac Vaga scores more
36%

Torlak at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Torlak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Torlak 0–1 Stepojevac Vaga

Stepojevac Vaga beat Torlak 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on March 3, 2023.

The match was played at Sportski Centar Ada Ciganlija in Beograd.