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Stepojevac Vaga vs Torlak — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Stepojevac Vaga
Stepojevac Vaga
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Torlak
Torlak
5/17/2024Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 28FK Brodarac Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Stepojevac Vaga46%
×Draw26%
Torlak28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stepojevac Vaga
1.50
Torlak
1.12

Stepojevac Vaga creates 34% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 42 away

creates per match

Stepojevac Vaga
1.47
Torlak
1.21

allows per match

Stepojevac Vaga
1.03
Torlak
1.52

finishing

Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par
Torlak+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stepojevac Vaga ↓

Torlak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Stepojevac Vaga or draw
72%
Stepojevac Vaga or Torlak
74%
Draw or Torlak
54%

Winning margin

Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+
23%
Torlak wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals
78%
Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals
44%
Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals
19%
Torlak 1+ goals
67%
Torlak 2+ goals
31%
Torlak 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)
62%
Torlak (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stepojevac Vaga at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.03 · 86 matches

Torlak away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stepojevac Vaga attack 1.47 + Torlak defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.50

Torlak attack 1.21 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stepojevac Vaga scores more
46%
level
26%
Torlak scores more
28%

Stepojevac Vaga at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stepojevac Vaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Stepojevac Vaga 3–0 Torlak

Stepojevac Vaga beat Torlak 3-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on May 17, 2024.

The match was played at FK Brodarac Stadion in Novi Beograd.