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Torlak vs BASK — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Torlak
Torlak
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
BASK
BASK
4/4/2026Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Torlak38%
×Draw26%
BASK35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torlak
1.34
BASK
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 90 away

creates per match

Torlak
1.55
BASK
0.92

allows per match

Torlak
1.64
BASK
1.14

finishing

Torlak+0.00on par
BASK+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torlak ↓

BASK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Torlak or draw
65%
Torlak or BASK
74%
Draw or BASK
62%

Winning margin

Torlak wins by 2+
17%
BASK wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Torlak 1+ goals
74%
Torlak 2+ goals
39%
Torlak 3+ goals
15%
BASK 1+ goals
72%
BASK 2+ goals
37%
BASK 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Torlak (draw refunded)
52%
BASK (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torlak at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

BASK away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.14 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torlak attack 1.55 + BASK defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.34

BASK attack 0.92 + Torlak defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Torlak scores more
38%
level
26%
BASK scores more
35%

Torlak at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Torlak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Torlak 1–4 BASK

BASK beat Torlak 4-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on April 4, 2026.